Recent Demographic Trends in France Ongoing Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic at Both Regional and National Levels

On 1 January 2022, the population of France was 67.8 million, 187,000 more than on 1 January 2021. Numbers of births, abortions, and marriages in 2021 were higher than in 2020 but did not return to the levels observed before the COVID-19 pandemic (2019). Mortality followed a similar pattern, with an improvement in 2021, but not a return to pre-crisis levels. In 2021, France was one of nine countries in EU-27 with positive natural population increase, although net migration made a larger contribution to demographic growth. The French population is still growing, therefore, but more slowly than before the pandemic. In 2020, admissions of third-country nationals with a residence permit fell sharply due to the health crisis. Admissions for employment reasons decreased most markedly. Inflows were concentrated in the Paris region (Ile-de-France). In 2021, the total fertility rate increased very slightly (1.83 children per woman) due mainly to an increase in rates at ages 30–39, with an age profile that varies across regions. The number of abortions remained stable between 2020 and 2021, but the share of medical abortions is increasing each year (77% in 2021), above all those managed in non-hospital settings. There are large geographical disparities, however, due to inequalities in care provision at local level. The upturn in marriages in 2021 only partially made up for those that could not be celebrated in 2020. PACS unions outnumbered marriages for the first time in 2020. Marriages are more frequent in eastern France, and PACS civil unions along the Atlantic coast and in the south-west. While lower than in 2020, the number of deaths remained high in 2021. Life expectancy in 2021 was still 4.6 months lower than in 2019 for men, and 1.4 months lower for women. Estimated excess mortality was 6.3% in 2021, after reaching 7.5% in 2020. The most affected regions are not necessarily those where mortality was initially high.Alternate :Le 1er janvier 2022, la France comptait 67,8 millions d'habitants soit 187 000 de plus qu'au 1er janvier 2021. Les nombres de naissances, d'IVG et de mariages en 2021 ont augmente si on les compare a 2020, sans toutefois retrouver les niveaux observes avant la crise sanitaire (2019). Il en est de meme pour les deces dont le nombre a diminue, mais reste encore superieur a celui observe en 2019. En 2021, la France fait partie des 9 pays europeens parmi les 27 dont le solde naturel est positif. Son solde migratoire l'est egalement et, en 2021, est superieur au solde naturel. Au total, la population de la France continue d'augmenter, mais a un rythme plus faible qu'avant la pandemie. En 2020, les flux d'entrees de personnes venant de pays tiers avec un titre de sejour ont tres fortement diminue du fait de la crise sanitaire. Ce sont les titres pour raison professionnelle qui ont le plus baisse. Les demandes se concentrent en Ile-de-France. En 2021, l'indice conjoncturel de fecondite augmente tres legerement (1,83 enfant par femme), principalement du fait de la hausse des taux entre 30 et 39 ans. Le profil par age varie selon les regions. Le recours a l'avortement est plutot stable entre 2020 et 2021, mais la part des IVG realisees par la methode medicamenteuse augmente d'annee en annee (77 % en 2021), surtout celles pratiquees en cabinet de ville. Cependant, on observe d'importantes differences territoriales, du fait d'une offre de soins inegale au niveau local. En 2021, le rattrapage des mariages qui n'ont pu etre celebres en 2020 n'a ete que partiel. Pour la premiere fois en 2020, le nombre de pacs depasse celui des mariages. Les mariages sont plus frequents sur le flanc est du pays et les pacs sur la facade atlantique et dans le SudOuest. Le nombre de deces reste important en 2021 malgre une amelioration par rapport a 2020. L'esperance de vie en 2021 reste inferieure de 4,6 mois pour les hommes par rapport a 2019, et de 1,4 mois pour les femmes. La surmortalite est estimee a 6,3 % en 2021 apres avoir ete de 7,5 % en 2020. Les regions les plus touchees ne sont pas necessairement celles ou a mortalite etait initialement forte.Alternate :El 1 de enero de 2022, Francia contaba con 67,8 millones de habitantes, es decir, 187 000 mas que el 1 de enero de 2021. El numero de nacimientos, de IVE y de matrimonios en 2021 aumento en comparacion a 2020, pero sin alcanzar los niveles observados antes de la crisis sanitaria (2019). Lo mismo ocurrio con las defunciones, cuyo numero disminuyo, aunque seguia siendo superior al observado en 2019. En 2021, Francia se encontraba entre los 9 paises europeos de los 27 cuyo crecimiento vegetativo era positivo. El saldo migratorio tambien lo era y, en 2021, fue superior al crecimiento vegetativo. En su conjunto, la poblacion de Francia continua aumentando, pero a un ritmo mas lento que antes de la pandemia. En 2020, los flujos de entradas de personas provenientes de paises terceros con permiso de residencia disminuyeron considerablemente debido a la crisis sanitaria. Los visados por razones profesionales fueron los que mas cayeron. Las solicitudes se concentraban en Ile-de-France. En 2021, el indice coyuntural de fecundidad experimento un ligero aumento (1,83 hijos por mujer), principalmente por la subida de las tasas entre los 30 y los 39 anos. El perfil por edad varia segun las regiones. El recurso al aborto se mantiene mas bien estable entre 2020 y 2021, pero la parte de IVE realizadas por el metodo farmacologico aumenta ano tras ano (77 % en 2021), sobre todo las practicadas en consultorios urbanos. No obstante, se observan importantes diferencias territoriales, por una oferta de atencion sanitaria desigual a nivel local. En 2021, la recuperacion de matrimonios que no pudieron celebrarse en 2020 tan solo fue parcial. Por primera vez en 2020, el numero de PACS (Pacto Civil de Solidaridad) sobrepasaba al de matrimonios. Los matrimonios son mas frecuentes en el este del pais y los PACS en la costa atlantica y en el suroeste. El numero de defunciones seguia siendo importante en 2021 aunque hubiera mejorado con respecto a 2020. La esperanza de vida en 2021 se redujo 4,6 meses para los hombres con respecto a 2019, y 1,4 meses para las mujeres. El exceso de mortalidad se estima en 6,3 % en 2021 tras haber alcanzado el 7,5 % en 2020. Las regiones mas afectadas no son necesariamente aquellas que presentaban en principio una mortalidad mas acusada.

Mortality inequalities in France since the 1920s: Evidence of a reversal of the income gradient in mortality.

Many recent studies show that Europe has had a lower mortality inequality for most ages than the United States over the last thirty years. However, the evolution of the income gradient in mortality all along the twentieth century remains poorly understood. This article uses a unique dataset that gives the annual lifetables and fiscal income for the 90 administrative regions of mainland France from 1922 to 2020. The income gradients in mortality are computed across regions using a traditional method with calendar ages and, alternatively, with mortality milestones to control for the increase in life expectancy over time. The study reveals a systematic reversal of the gradient that occurred around the 1970s for both sexes and all ages or mortality groups when calculated at an aggregated level. Inequality in mortality amongst the oldest age groups has however returned to a level observed at least ten years earlier because of Covid-19, even after controlling for mortality improvements over the period.

Vaccination under pessimistic expectations in clinical trials and immunization campaigns.

We provide one of the first formalizations of a vaccination campaign in a decision-theoretic framework. We analyze a model where an ambiguity-averse individual must decide how much effort to invest into prevention in the context of a rampant disease. We study how ambiguity aversion affects the effort and the estimation of the vaccine efficacy in clinical trials and immunization campaigns. We find that the behaviors of individuals participating in a clinical trial differ from individuals not participating. Individuals who are more optimistic toward vaccination participate more in trials. Their behaviors and efforts are also affected. As a result, because vaccine efficacy depends on unobserved behaviors and efforts, the biological effect of the vaccine becomes difficult to evaluate. During the scale-up phase of a vaccination campaign, provided that vaccine efficacy is established, we show that vaccine hesitancy may still be rational.

The Disruptive Impact of COVID-19 on French Population Dynamics: Fewer Births and Marriages, a Downturn in Migration, More Deaths…

On 1 January 2021, the population of France was 67.4 million, 120,000 more than on 1 January 2020. Unlike many European countries, the French population did not decline, but growth slowed sharply due mainly to the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected all components of population change. Provisional data indicate that the number of residence permits valid for at least 1 year granted to third-country nationals likely fell in 2020 (–10,000), particularly among immigrants from Africa and those entering France for family or humanitarian reasons. Births also fell sharply, with a spectacular dip 9 months after the lockdown. This drop reflects a decrease in the number of conceptions and not an increase in abortions, whose number fell in 2020, notably in the months following the first lockdown. But the two demographic events most affected by the pandemic were marriages, which became impossible because of strict social distancing rules imposed during lockdown (–70,000), and, as expected, mortality. Life expectancy fell by 0.56 years for males and 0.45 years for females, dropping back to the levels observed 6 years previously.

Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2.

An estimation of the impact of climatic conditions-measured with an index that combines temperature and humidity, the IPTCC-on the hospitalizations and deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 is proposed. The present paper uses weekly data from 54 French administrative regions between March 23, 2020 and January 10, 2021. Firstly, a Granger causal analysis is developed and reveals that past values of the IPTCC contain information that allow for a better prediction of hospitalizations or deaths than that obtained without the IPTCC. Finally, a vector autoregressive model is estimated to evaluate the dynamic response of hospitalizations and deaths after an increase in the IPTCC. It is estimated that a 10-point increase in the IPTCC causes hospitalizations to rise by 2.9% (90% CI 0.7-5.0) one week after the increase, and by 4.1% (90% CI 2.1-6.4) and 4.4% (90% CI 2.5-6.3) in the two following weeks. Over ten weeks, the cumulative effect is estimated to reach 20.1%. Two weeks after the increase in the IPTCC, deaths are estimated to rise by 3.7% (90% CI 1.6-5.8). The cumulative effect from the second to the tenth weeks reaches 15.8%. The results are robust to the inclusion of air pollution indicators.